I suspect it may be "The Hobbit,' which brings out the dedicated fan base. 'Les Mis' may do ok in the long run as its got some star power, but the little hobbit could be bringing in families.
How will 'Django Unchained' and 'Jack Reacher' do, both carrying massive stars — Tom Cruise and Quentin Tarantino — and also extreme violence, perform? I think they'll do fine in terms of what they're expected to earn. People who like these movies will watch them. I would, and perhaps will.
I wonder if Oscar favorites, or critical darlings, like 'Lincoln' and 'Argo' will reemerge after weeks in release, bringing in big dollars.
Christmas isn't just good for the retail economy, it's crucial to the film and entertainment industries, too.